RBI's Governor, D Subbarao feels that India's economic growth for the next financial session would be less than the present projection of 7.5% to 8%. On a meeting with West Bengal's chief minister, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya the governor said, "Year 2008-09 will be a difficult year and 2009-10 will also be difficult, perhaps a more difficult year." He further pointed that the forecast made by the RBI might be revised downward in its monetary policy review to be held in January 2009. "All indications are that it (GDP forecast) may be revised downwards," he said. "IMF has revised its forecast for global growth and growth of emerging economies significantly. Reflecting that we would be doing our own numbers in our policy estimates in January," he said. The governor says that the financial turmoil across the globe is likely to continue in the coming years and India cannot escape its impact. In fact some official from RBI said that they had under-estimated the impact of the crisis until now. The crisis outlook continues to be bleak and Mr Subbarao stated: "The crisis is, by no means, over. Drawing lessons may, therefore, appear a bit premature. There may yet be surprises. Even so, it will be instructive to put our minds together to understand how we got here and how we may avoid the mistakes and excesses in the future. It will be presumptuous on my part to anticipate the whole gamut of issues that you will bring to the discussion." In the mid-term review of monetary policy in October, RBI had projected a growth rate of 7.5% to 8% and now it is expected to scale down this figure. Even the Prime Minister's economic advisory council that had projected a GDP growth rate of 7.7% for 2008-09 is probable to revise its prediction. The Indian economy grew at a rate of 7.8% in the first half of the current fiscal against 9.3% growth for the same period a year ago. Mr Subbarao said that the coming two years would be very critical for the country. |