RBI project economic Gr-rate at 7.5% for next decade
By Neelima Shankar
Jul 8, 2009
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The Reserve Bank has revised the country's growth rate projections to 7.5 percent p.a. for the next 10 years on basis of Professional Forecasters' Survey results. Earlier the regulator had estimated growth at 8.8 percent p.a.

In a statement, bank said, "For the next 10 years, GDP is expected to grow at 7.5 per cent, revised downwards from 8.8 per cent in the last survey."

The average growth rate forecasted for the four consecutive quarters of FY09/10 under the survey studies stand at 5.3 percent, 5.6 percent, 6.2 per cent and 6.5 percent respectively.

The Reserve Bank of India conducts a quarterly survey on macro-economic indicators for medium-term development of the economy. The institution has been conducting surveys since Q4-2007. The survey encompasses views of 17 professional forecasters. In a statement, the bank said, "The results of the survey represent views of the respondent forecasters and in no way reflect the central bank's views or forecasts."

The survey had incised growth rate forecast for FY2008-09 to 6.6 percent from the earlier 6.8 percent. The outlook for current fiscal, 2009-10 has been revised to 5.7 percent from the earlier 6.0 percent.

The Wholesale Price Index is expected at minus 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009-10. It expected to loom around 5 percent in next 5 years and around 4.5 percent over next 10 years. The consumer price index number for industrial workers (CPI-IW) is expected at an average of 5.9 percent for a period of next five years and at 5 percent over the next decade.

Presently, the CPI is around 10 percent, while the WPI hovers around (-)1.14 percent. Driven by the wide gap, Indian banks had been reducing deposit rates. As expected from the Professional Forecasters' Survey, the gap between these indices will reduce in the coming years on basis of which the interest rates will stabilise.


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